Calculator
True Count: +2
Why True Count Matters More Than Running Count
The running count tells you how many excess high or low cards have been dealt, but it does not account for how many cards remain in the shoe. A running count of +6 with 6 decks remaining (TC +1) is a very different situation from a running count of +6 with 1.5 decks remaining (TC +4).
The true count normalizes the running count per deck remaining, giving you a standardized measure of deck richness. This matters for two critical decisions:
- Bet sizing: Your bet spread is keyed to true count, not running count. TC +1 might be a 2-unit bet; TC +4 might be a 10-unit bet.
- Strategy deviations: The Illustrious 18 index numbers are true count thresholds. You stand on 16 vs 10 at TC 0+, not at RC 0+.
Step-by-Step True Count Conversion
The formula is simple: True Count = Running Count ÷ Decks Remaining
Step 1: Maintain the Running Count
Use the Hi-Lo system: +1 for cards 2-6, 0 for 7-9, −1 for 10-A. Track the running count through every card you see.
Step 2: Estimate Decks Remaining
Look at the discard tray and estimate how many decks have been played. Subtract from the total shoe size. In a 6-deck shoe with about 2 decks in the discard, there are approximately 4 decks remaining. You do not need to be precise — rounding to the nearest half-deck is sufficient.
Step 3: Divide and Truncate
Divide the running count by decks remaining. Always truncate toward zero (round down for positive, round up for negative):
- RC +7 ÷ 3 decks = TC +2 (not +2.33)
- RC +5 ÷ 2 decks = TC +2 (not +2.5)
- RC −5 ÷ 2 decks = TC −2 (not −2.5)
- RC +3 ÷ 4 decks = TC 0 (not +0.75)
Truncation toward zero is important because it prevents you from overbetting marginal situations. Some systems use rounding or flooring, but truncation toward zero is the most common and conservative approach.
Deck Estimation Techniques
Estimating decks remaining accurately is the hardest part of true count conversion. Here are methods to improve your estimation:
The Discard Tray Method
One deck of cards is approximately 20mm (3/4 inch) thick. Practice at home: stack one deck and note its height. Stack two, three, four. Memorize the visual height of each stack. At the table, glance at the discard tray and estimate decks played, then subtract from the shoe total.
The Round-Counting Method
At a full table (5-6 players), each round deals approximately 15 cards. After 7 rounds, roughly 2 decks have been dealt in a 6-deck game. This is a useful cross-check if the discard tray is hard to see.
Half-Deck Precision Is Enough
You do not need to estimate to a tenth of a deck. Half-deck precision gives you a TC estimate within about ±0.5 of the exact value, which is sufficient for betting and deviation decisions. Agonizing over whether 3.2 or 3.4 decks remain wastes mental energy you need for other tasks.
True Count Interpretation
| True Count | Deck Composition | Betting Action | Strategy Changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| −3 or lower | Very low-card rich | Minimum or leave | None (basic strategy) |
| −2 to 0 | Slightly unfavorable | Minimum bet | Some negative-index deviations |
| +1 | Roughly breakeven | 1-2 units | 11 vs A double |
| +2 | Slightly favorable | 2-4 units | 12 vs 3 stand |
| +3 | Favorable | 4-8 units | Insurance correct, 12 vs 2 stand |
| +4 | Very favorable | 8-10 units | 15 vs 10 stand, 10 vs 10 double |
| +5 or higher | Extremely favorable | Maximum bet | 10,10 vs 5 split, 16 vs 9 stand |
Each +1 increase in true count shifts the player edge by approximately 0.5% (varies by game rules). At TC 0, the house edge is roughly −0.4% for a typical 6-deck game. At TC +2, you are close to breakeven. At TC +4, you have about a 1.5% edge.
Practice Drills
True count conversion must be automatic at the table. Practice these drills daily as part of your counting routine:
- Flash drill: Write 20 random RC/decks-remaining pairs on index cards. Flip through them and calculate TC as fast as possible. Target: under 2 seconds each.
- Mental math drill: While going about your day, practice dividing random numbers by 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 4. These are the most common denominators you will encounter.
- Trainer integration: Use the Blackjack 3000 trainer with true count display enabled. After each round, estimate the TC before looking at the displayed value. Track how often you are within ±1.
Common Mistakes
- Forgetting to update the denominator. Decks remaining changes throughout the shoe. If you calculated TC at 4 decks remaining and then 10 more cards are dealt, you need to recalculate with the new denominator (~3.8 decks).
- Rounding instead of truncating. RC +5 ÷ 2 decks should be TC +2, not TC +3. Rounding up causes you to overbet in marginal situations.
- Converting too infrequently. Convert before every bet decision and every deviation decision. The TC changes with every card dealt.
- Panicking at extreme counts. TC +6 does not mean every hand is a winner. It means you have about a 2.5% edge — you will still lose plenty of individual hands. Stay disciplined with your spread.
Frequently Asked Questions
Do all counting systems use true count?
Most balanced systems (Hi-Lo, Hi-Opt I, Hi-Opt II, Zen) require true count conversion. The KO (Knock-Out) system is unbalanced and uses the running count directly with adjusted index numbers, which eliminates the division step at the cost of some accuracy.
What if there is less than one deck remaining?
Divide by the fraction. RC +3 ÷ 0.5 decks = TC +6. This is common deep in the shoe and produces very high (or low) true counts, which is why deep penetration is so valuable — it creates these extreme count situations more often.
Should I convert at double-deck games too?
Yes, but the division is simpler because you are typically dividing by 0.5, 1, or 1.5. In a 2-deck game with 1 deck remaining, RC +4 = TC +4. With 0.5 decks remaining, RC +2 = TC +4. The smaller shoe makes conversions easier.