Blackjack 3000

Blackjack Insurance: The Math

Insurance pays 2:1 if dealer has blackjack, but the break-even probability is high. Most players overpay for it.

Core Rule

Insurance is offered when dealer shows an Ace. You bet half your original stake that the hole card is a ten-value card.

Break-even for a 2:1 payout is 1 in 3 (33.33%). If ten density is below that, insurance is losing.

Practical Guidance

  • Basic strategy player: decline insurance.
  • Counter: insurance can be correct at sufficiently high true counts.
  • Do not confuse insurance with "even money"; they are the same decision mathematically.